NFL is back!

If you're reading this, wow thank you. This will be my first time writing content. I'm going to go for succinct posts that get to the point. Alright - lets talk football.

False Cover is built on the premise that the markets are liquid with bettors that have access to lots and lots of data. But that historical trends matter less when the differences are extremely thin, i.e. pro football. So we look for things that are more week-to-week.

This insight comes from many conversations with my father-in-law around football. I got to see up close how much technology + hours coaches spent preparing for a single game. He's one the smartest guys I know. And yet he had many seasons coaching 6-10 or 5-11 teams. So what gives?

That's what False Cover is intended to bring to light. Edges found in situational spots, roster impact, and betting splits from a public book (DraftKings) and a private book (Circa).

Now onto Carolina / Arizona; our algorithm has this as a toss-up as it should be. Pre-season games are meant to understand roster depth more than anything so playing time is pretty arbitrary game to game. Plus early in camp its hard to tell anything from situational spots. One thing does come to mind as I've been tracking Mike Kaye on X - Carolina has had some bad injury luck already. Scourton, Moton, JT Sanders, Mitch Evans, and lots of rest days for the vets.

So my thought here is that Carolina's backups have been practicing with the 1st team more than usual. Meaning they've already had to step up. And I expect the backups to play more minutes so I have Carolina winning big. If I could get an alt-line on +7.5 that'd be where my money is.

Looking forward to season ahead. Thanks for reading!