International Games 2026
Teams playing the week right after an international game! What gives?
This year there will be an incredible 15 games where a team plays internationally one week and has to fly back and play again the next week. The trend has certainly been there with new games popping up in Brazil, Spain, Mexico, and Germany. But 15 just this year is a big number and I wondered what the data was around international games and how teams performed ATS the week after.
I went back to 2015 and pulled them, 17 games total. Things I looked out for: Home or Away, First time coach (the amount of effort coaches spend on coordination can be overwhelming), Divisional Game:
| Date | Game | Return Team | Location | Cover? | ATS | 1st Time Coach | Div. Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-10-09 | Indianapolis vs Chicago | Indianapolis | Home | Yes | -4 | No | No |
| 2017-10-01 | Baltimore at Pittsburgh | Baltimore | Away | No | +3.5 | No | Yes |
| 2017-10-01 | Jacksonville at NY Jets | Jacksonville | Away | No | -4 | No | No |
| 2017-10-08 | Miami vs Tennessee | Miami | Home | Yes | -1 | No | No |
| 2021-10-24 | Miami vs Atlanta | Miami | Home | No | +1.5 | No | No |
| 2022-10-09 | Minnesota vs Chicago | Minnesota | Home | No | -8.5 | Yes | Yes |
| 2022-10-09 | New Orleans vs Seattle | New Orleans | Home | Yes | -5.5 | No | No |
| 2022-10-16 | NY Giants vs Baltimore | NY Giants | Home | Yes | +5.5 | Yes | No |
| 2022-10-16 | Green Bay vs NY Jets | Green Bay | Home | No | -7.5 | No | No |
| 2022-11-06 | Jacksonville vs Las Vegas | Jacksonville | Home | Yes | +2.5 | No | No |
| 2023-10-08 | Atlanta vs Houston | Atlanta | Home | No | -2.5 | No | No |
| 2023-10-15 | Jacksonville vs Indianapolis | Jacksonville | Home | Yes | -4 | No | Yes |
| 2023-10-15 | Buffalo vs NY Giants | Buffalo | Home | No | -15 | No | No |
| 2023-10-22 | Baltimore vs Detroit | Baltimore | Home | Yes | -3 | No | No |
| 2024-10-14 | NY Jets vs Buffalo | NY Jets | Home | No | +1 | No | Yes |
| 2024-10-27 | New England vs NY Jets | New England | Home | Yes | +7 | Yes | No |
| 2024-10-27 | Jacksonville vs Green Bay | Jacksonville | Home | Yes | +3.5 | No | No |
| 2025-10-12 | Cleveland at Pittsburgh | Cleveland | Away | No | +5.5 | No | Yes |
| 2025-10-19 | NY Giants at Denver | Denver | Home | No | -7 | No | No |
| 2025-10-19 | Carolina at NY Jets | NY Jets | Home | No | +1.5 | Yes | No |
| 2025-11-16 | Carolina at Atlanta | Atlanta | Home | No | -3.5 | No | Yes |
Return-Team ATS Ledger
Return teams are a not-so-great 42.9% cover rate. But that includes a rough 0-4 stint last year. What did stick out for me were how poorly return teams were when they were the away team (0-3) or when the faced a divisional opponent (1-5). The only win there was from the London Jaguars. Seemingly the first year head coach thing didn't matter too much.
So what would I be eyeing this year? Let's take a look at the games I'd note:
| Intl Week | Return Team | Opponent | Location | Div. Game | First-Time HC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Dallas | Houston | Away | No | No |
| 4 | Indianapolis | Pittsburgh | Away | No | No |
| 4 | Washington | NY Giants | Home | Yes | No |
| 5 | Jacksonville | Houston | Away | Yes | No |
| 7 | Pittsburgh | Cleveland | Home | Yes | No |
| 9 | Cincinnati | Pittsburgh | Home | Yes | No |
| 11 | San Francisco | Seattle | Home | Yes | No |
Dallas away at Houston AFTER playing the Ravens in Brazil seems like a great opportunity to fade Dallas Week 3. Same with Indy @ Pitt in Week 4. Depending on the line of the Jax vs Hou it could be tempting but Jacksonville is very comfortable with the London trips that it might not be worth it.
Another way to think about ATS lines is that the public might fade teams coming back from an international game but if they are at home and against a non-divisional opponent you might want to back the return team.
Week 1 can't come soon enough.